[institutional comments] Special report on the port industry: container throughput in hub ports increased year on year in the first ten days of November-7% year on year, coal port storage and iron ore throughput increased year-on-year.

Report guide

In early November, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports decreased by 5.5% compared with the same period last year; of which the foreign trade throughput was-5.9% year-on-year. The container throughput of the eight hub ports is-7.4% year-on-year, of which foreign trade container throughput is-5.7% year-on-year, and domestic trade container throughput is-12.0% year-on-year. According to the information publicly disclosed by the Port Association, the strong wind and cooling weather in this decade has had an impact on port production around the Bohai Sea and the Yangtze River Delta, and some ports have been temporarily suspended.

Main points of investment

Port data for early November

(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports:-5.5% compared with the same period last year, of which foreign trade throughput is-5.9% year-on-year.

In the first ten days of November, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports decreased by 5.5% compared with the same period last year, of which the foreign trade throughput was-5.9% year-on-year, 8.9 pct lower than that in late October compared with + 3.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned negative.

(2) Container: year-on-year container throughput of eight hub ports-7.4% in early November, container throughput of eight hub ports-7.4% year-on-year (previous value-0.6%). Among them, the foreign trade container throughput is-5.7% compared with the same period last year (previous value-0.8%), and the domestic trade container throughput is-12.0% year-on-year (previous value-0.1%).

(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory

Crude oil: in terms of throughput,-11.9% year-on-year (previous value + 15.1%); in terms of Hong Kong storage,-4.6% year-on-year (previous value-6.7%).

In terms of throughput, iron ore is + 16.3% year-on-year (previous value + 8.9%). In terms of port storage, according to the 45 ports across the country, 150 million tons of iron ore were stored in the port on November 12, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year and 12.5% over the average since 2017.

Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port and Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port are year-on-year-18.7% (previous value + 6.1%), mainly affected by strong wind and cooling weather; in terms of port storage, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port, + 22.7% year-on-year (previous value + 3.1%), from the caliber of the northern port where coal is centrally launched, the task of coal supply has been implemented in an orderly manner, and the stock of the northern coal port has rebounded obviously.

Port data for the whole month of September

(1) Coastal port cargo in September: throughput-1.5% year-on-year (previous value + 3.0%)

(2) Container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports is-0.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate turns negative, while the foreign trade container throughput is-5.1% year-on-year (previous value + 6.8%), and the growth rate slows down.

(3) Throughput of key goods

Crude oil: in terms of throughput, September compared with the same period last year-9.3% (previous value-6.1%) (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber);

Iron ore: in terms of throughput, September compared with the same period last year-3.9% (previous value-3.8%) (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber);

Coal: in terms of throughput, September compared with the same month last year-16.6% (previous value-7.6%) (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber).

(4) key coastal ports

In September, the cargo throughput of six ports increased in the same month compared with the same month last year, with the cargo throughput of Lianyungang Port and Beibu Gulf Port reaching 21.8% and 18.2% respectively in the same month compared with the same month last year.

In September, the foreign trade cargo throughput of Jinzhou Port and Beibu Gulf Port increased sharply in that month compared with the same month last year, reaching 17.3% and 22.1% respectively.

In September, the container throughput of several ports increased positively in the same month compared with the same month last year. Among them, the container throughput of Rizhao Port and Beibu Gulf Port exceeded 10% in that month compared with the same month last year.

Key ports: Qingdao Port (big city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 53 million tons in September, with a year-on-year cargo throughput of + 3.0% (previous value + 3.2%), a cumulative value of 481 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year value of + 6.2% (previous value + 6.6%);

Shipping freight index for the first ten days of November

The Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on November 12, the BDI index was 2807, up 1.4 per cent from November 4 and 146.0 per cent year-on-year. Among them, the BCI index (Baltic Cape of good Hope freight index) was 3836 points, up 19.1% from November 4, and 137.8% year-on-year. The BPI index (Baltic Panamanian bulk carrier freight rate) was 2930 points, down 7.5% from November 4, an increase of 107.8% over the same period last year.

Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on November 12, the BDTI index was 821 points, an increase of 2.9% over November 4 and a year-on-year increase of 101.7%.

Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on November 12, the SCFI index was 4554 points, an increase of 0.4% over November 5 and a sharp increase of 122.3% over a year ago.

China's export container freight index (CCFI): on November 12, the CCFI index was 3232 points, down 1.6% from November 5, a sharp increase of 169.7% compared with the same period last year.

Investment suggestion

Qingdao Port: the logic of quantity increase and price increase is verified step by step. The expansion of shipping routes by the beneficiary company led to the growth of container business and the release of new liquid bulk capacity in Dongjiakou Port area led to the growth of liquid bulk cargo throughput. In the first three quarters of 21, the company completed cargo throughput of 434 million tons, + 8.1% compared with the same period last year, and container throughput of 1783 TEU, + 11.1% over the same period last year. In terms of rates, after the Shandong Port Group was established in August 2019, the integration of the "four-step strategy" has completed the first three steps, regional port price competition continues to ease, is expected to enter a coordinated price increase cycle, we expect the rate side to continue to improve. In the future, the number of company routes is expected to further increase: on the basis of 16 foreign trade routes in the first 8 months of 21 years, a new Cosco Marine American Line Direct passenger Express Line was added in October.

In October, Qingdao Port joined hands with Shandong Port Logistics Group to visit 13 shipping companies, including Maersk, Dafei and Evergreen, to exchange sea and land expansion and transit box development, and the route is expected to be further increased in the future.

Shanghai Port Group: undervalued leader, benefiting from location advantages, empty container transportation center settled in the new area of Lingang, continue to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. In the first three quarters of 21, the container throughput of the company's home port was + 9.9% year on year, and the cargo throughput was 8.6% year on year. On October 1, 21, Shanghai Port Group invested in the construction and operation of an automated container port in Haifa, Israel, and put into use. The first phase of the terminal has an annual design throughput of 1.06 million TEUs. With the help of the new port of Haifa, the company's home port is expected to further strengthen its business ties with the ports of the "Maritime Silk Road" in the future, and continue to consolidate the company's position as an international shipping hub port.

Risk hint

Global trade deteriorated; the global novel coronavirus epidemic lasted longer than expected; and port-related policies were lower than expected.